Ambrey issues updated ‘Threat Circular’ after US intervention in Israel-Iran conflict

Following escalation of the Israel-Iran hostilities with the US carriying out air strikes on Iranian targets, security specialist Ambrey issued an updated ‘Threat Circular’ on the afternoon of the following day (23 June). It reported that, at the time of writing, no merchant shipping had been damaged or seized but it warned that the risk to Israel- and US-affiliated shipping was “assessed to be high”.

Ambrey noted that five publicly US-affiliated merchant ships had departed the Arabian/Persian Gulf since the US military operations, while none publicly affiliated with the US appeared to have entered. Rather Ambrey said it was aware of at least five merchant ships that were destined to enter the Arabian/Persian Gulf but about-turned or chose to wait. At least two of these did not bear a public US-affiliation, indicating broader concern in the market. Several US-flagged merchant ships have gathered in UAE territorial seas.

Whilst the stated threat to the Strait of Hormuz (as marked on map, courtesy Ambrey Analytics) has been non-specific, the security specialist reckons it more likely that if Iran were to declare the Strait closed, it would only be to certain affiliations. A complete closure would be to the detriment of Iran’s relations with its neighbours and disruptive to the world’s economy, which would impact its partners. It is assessed unnecessary to do this. There has been no designation of a combat area, which might disrupt shipping at large.

In the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, Ambrey assesses that targets have not been available to the Houthis, and this explains the lack of incidents. The security specialist feels it “likely that they will resume the targeting of US-affiliated shipping in the region when the opportunity arises.”

However, there are currently almost zero US-affiliated vessels that transit the region, points out Ambrey. In its 18th June ‘Threat Circular’ about the Red Sea Crisis, it was mentioned that since the US-Houthi ceasefire on May 6th, only one publicly US-affiliated merchant ship had passed through the Bab al Mandab.

In Israel, no merchant ships have been damaged but merchant shipping has been disrupted during port operations. During attacks on port cities, port alarms have sounded, operations temporarily suspended, and crews were advised to take shelter. Operations can resume within an hour of the alarms sounding. Gas facilities offshore Israel suspended operations.

In terms of risk mitigation measures, Ambrey recommends a thorough affiliation check as part of a transit risk assessment is performed for Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, Arabian/Persian Gulf, Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea voyages. Ambrey says it continues to adjust these as per the developing intent and threat.

Vessels are strongly affiliated with the target profile are advised to avoid the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, Arabian/Persian Gulf, Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea where possible.

Merchant shipping assessed to be at heightened risk is advised to carry out Ship Security Assessments tailored to the threat, and to implement recommended and proportionate ship protection measures before sailing.