Airline disruption linked to Middle East conflict is reshaping crew changes, says ATPI

The ongoing Middle East conflict has triggered airspace instability and weakened airline networks, making crew changes longer, less flexible, riskier, and more costly, according to new analysis by the world’s largest travel management specialist for the maritime industry.

ATPI Marine Travel’s data highlights a structural shift in the aviation market, where pricing pressure is being compounded by reduced availability and increasing operational complexity, establishing a higher cost baseline for global crew change travel. The sustained rise in airfares since early March, which has remained elevated into April, is not attributable to a single factor. Instead, ATPI’s analysis points to a self‑reinforcing cycle of operational and commercial pressures that continues to reshape the aviation landscape:

- Airspace disruption forcing longer, less efficient routings and more late flight cancellations

- Selective airline capacity reductions tightening effective supply and limiting access to lower fare inventory

- Jet fuel cost pressure contributing to ongoing cancellations and schedule reductions

- Weakened network reliability limiting recovery options when on trip adjustments are needed

For time‑critical crew change operations, this loss of network resilience has rendered many previously viable itineraries operationally unacceptable, even where seats remain available. The most pronounced impact is on long-haul routes critical to marine operations, with Asia–Europe corridors recording a weighted average fare increase of 110% and peak cases rising by as much as 218%. ATPI’s data also shows a material reduction in non‑stop and single‑connection options on these routes, with many previously efficient itineraries being replaced by more complex routings that increase transit time and operational risk.

“Marine crew travel is highly exposed to this type of disruption because it cannot be deferred. What we are seeing is not just higher fares, but a more constrained and less predictable travel environment,” said Eleftheria Letsiou, Head of Global Account Management, Marine at ATPI. “Beyond airfare inflation, maritime operators are absorbing a growing layer of secondary costs, from contract extensions and overtime to last‑minute re‑routing and additional travel and port coordination expenses. In many cases, these indirect disruption‑related costs exceed the headline increase in ticket prices. Even if geopolitical conditions stabilise, aviation recovery will lag and the industry should plan for continued cost pressure and focus on strengthening crew change logistics resilience.”

ATPI says it is supporting clients through real-time visibility on fare movements and routing changes, enabling earlier and more strategic booking decisions, and broadening airline and routing options to maintain operational continuity. This approach helps optimise operational cost while protecting crew well-being in a more complex travel environment.