Shipping’s mask of Janus
It is often said that ‘shipping thrives in chaos’, and it’s hard to think of a period in recent times that has been more chaotic for shipowners… or more profitable.
Consider first the chaos, not merely in terms of disruption to established routes and ports of call but also physical dangers to seafarers.
Speaking at the end of August, IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez noted that the Iran War had now lasted six months. To date, at least 70 attacks on international shipping have been verified by IMO, he said with 19 seafarers killed, while up to 400 ships carrying around 6,000 seafarers have been unable to depart safely the Middle East Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began.
At the same time, Russia and Ukraine have continued to exchange attacks on commercial ships in the Black Sea and Azov Sea area, the Houthis have returned to menacing traffic in the Red Sea, and piracy is returning in areas like the Gulf of Aden and surrounding areas, with some 90 seafarers being held hostage at the time of writing. Meanwhile, widespread port congestion and delays, as well as restricted traffic through the Panama Canal, have compounded the operational chaos.
But precisely because of the disruption, shipping has prospered. The greater tonne/miles required by longer routes and resulting scarcity of capacity have served to drive up freight rates across virtually all shipping segments. Speaking on the eve of shipbuilding and ship machinery trade fair SMM (1-4 September), Clarksons Research head Steve Gordon pointed out that shipping industry was returning to the biennial Hamburg event “in rude health”. Underlying shipping rates were “stellar”, he pointed out, with the Hormuz disruption having “turbocharged” the cross-sector day-rate Clarksea Index.
For example, tanker owner/operator Frontline reported its highest ever quarterly profit in Q2 of $660 million following a similar bonanza gain of $560 million the preceding quarter. Closer to the source of the Hormuz disruption, Abu Dhabi-based tanker company ADNOC L&S reported a record Q2 net profit of US$950 million, helping fuel a rapid fleet expansion.
Over in liner, while the sector no longer enjoys the exceptional returns of the pandemic period, it has become highly profitable again as a result of various disruptions including volatile trade tariffs. CMA CGM achieved EBITDA from shipping activities alone of over $3bn in H1 2026.
Nobody expects either geopolitical risk or shipping’s resultant rewards to diminish much in the short term - although further out the prospect looms of shipowners once again ‘shooting themselves in the foot’ through overordering.
In the meantime, how the shipping industry resolves this ‘mask of Janus’ situation that it finds itself in - balancing the woe of unacceptable physical danger to its workforce with the delight of the bountiful profits that flow – could be key to its reputational status and recruitment prospects going forward.