Red Sea ceasefire raises hopes — but shipping risk remains, says Dryad Global

Dryad Global, the maritime risk and security intelligence provider, is urging the global shipping community to remain cautious despite this week’s announcement of a proposed ceasefire between the United States and Yemen’s Houthi movement.

On Tuesday 6 May, the U.S. administration confirmed an immediate halt to its aerial bombardment campaign in Yemen, which began on 15 March. The move follows an Oman-brokered ceasefire proposal that would see a mutual cessation of hostilities between U.S. forces and the Houthi militia, specifically focused on the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait.

While commercial shipping has not suffered a direct attack in the region since late 2024, the Joint War Committee in London has not altered the war risk status for these waters, and Dryad Global maintains that the broader threat environment remains elevated.

“This ceasefire is a positive diplomatic development — but we are a long way from declaring a return to safe and stable shipping conditions in the region,” said a spokesperson for Dryad Global. “The Houthi leadership has been unpredictable throughout the conflict, with attacks on vessels linked to countries far outside the immediate conflict zone, including Russia and China.”

The ceasefire terms, as currently reported, would prevent U.S. strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and restrict Houthi forces from targeting U.S.-flagged vessels. However, Houthi officials have publicly stated that this agreement does not apply to their ongoing campaign against Israel, and recent Israeli strikes on Sana’a Airport, the Port of Hodeidah, and key industrial sites suggest continued regional escalation.

Further complicating the situation, Iran is reported to have withdrawn personnel from Houthi areas — a move analysts say may be aimed at gaining diplomatic leverage ahead of renewed nuclear talks with the U.S. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has been pressuring Washington to de-escalate ahead of President Trump’s anticipated visit in June.

Despite speculation around shifting alliances and diplomatic incentives, Dryad Global cautions that the risk to non-U.S. commercial vessels remains high, particularly those perceived to have links to Israel or its allies.

Dryad Global continues to provide live updates and threat assessments via its Secure Voyager Hub platform, delivering critical insights to shipping companies, insurers, and operators navigating complex maritime environments.

“This announcement does not yet justify a material change in our regional risk posture,” the spokesperson added. “The Red Sea remains an active threat zone with a high degree of unpredictability. Operators should continue to exercise caution and consult with specialist advisors before transiting.”