Seaborne coal trade rebounds as Asian energy crisis reshapes global flows

Global seaborne coal trade has returned to growth in 2026, reversing last year's decline as disruption to LNG supplies and shifting Asian demand patterns reshape international coal flows, according to new research from global shipbroker IFCHOR GALBRAITHS (IG).

Seaborne coal exports increased by 3% year-on-year in January–September 2026, following a 4% contraction in 2025. The recovery has been driven partly by disruption to LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Asian power utilities to increase coal purchases.

IG's new ‘Coal Markets Companion Report’ reveals a market increasingly characterised by divergent regional demand and changing trade routes.

Between March and September, Asian seaborne thermal coal imports were broadly flat at around 550 million tonnes, as lower purchases by China (-7%) and India (-10%) were matched by a rise of around 10% in the rest of Asia, led by South Korea, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan and Vietnam.

Laura Gomez, Research & Advisory, IFCHOR GALBRAITHS, commented: "The recovery in seaborne coal trade is particularly interesting because it is happening despite falling imports into China and India. Demand is shifting towards other Asian markets, partly in response to LNG supply disruption, while changes in sourcing are affecting established trade routes. It demonstrates why we need to look beyond headline coal consumption figures to understand what is happening in seaborne trade."

On the supply side, Indonesia, responsible for approximately 47% of global seaborne thermal coal trade, saw exports fall 7% in January–September, including a 16% decline in the third quarter. IG forecasts Indonesian coal exports easing to approximately 450 million tonnes by 2030.

Meanwhile, metallurgical coal followed a different trajectory, with global seaborne trade increasing 10% year-on-year in January–September, supported by stronger Chinese demand. Australian metallurgical coal exports rose 13%, with shipments to China almost doubling.

The findings accompany the launch of 'Coal 360', IG's latest Commodities 360 market intelligence service, building on its existing Iron Ore, Agri and Bauxite research.

Coal 360 provides detailed analysis of global thermal and metallurgical coal markets, covering production, exports, trade flows, ports, vessel deployment and forecasts, supported by regular updates and access to IG's Research & Advisory team.