Tanker body INTERTANKO’s weekly update reports that ships continue to be attacked across the Gulf Region. Fortunately, only a few minor injuries have been reported among seafarers on board in recent incidents.
Following previous attacks in the Gulf of Oman, two ships sank in the last week, a containership within the Strait of Hormuz and the bulk carrier Cape Dao. Neither pose a threat to surface navigation.
Iran continues to claim that ships have struck mines laid in the water, however, there is no credible evidence of this. Similarly, Iran continues to claim that many more ships have been struck than there is any credible evidence for. Transits through the southern US-facilitated route are now averaging over 30 per day with tankers making up roughly 90% of all transits.
The outlook remains the same, with an expectation that Iran will continue to attack ships in the region without respite and that the US is unlikely to respond beyond point defence within the Strait of Hormuz area.
A third US carrier battle group will be in the area at the beginning of November. It is unknown whether this is a routine operational to relieve an existing group or an enhanced military capability in preparation of a resumption in the conflict. All analysis points to a status quo between today and the outcome of the US mid-term elections. No actions will be taken prior to them, and after them the future is unknown and likely to depend upon the results.
Across in the Red Sea region, the Houthis have not conducted maritime operations for some time and there is no expectation that this will change in the near future. They retain considerable capability to strike maritime targets but are concentrating on their land war against the internationally recognised federal government and long-range strikes against infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.
More countries have joined a coalition to support and defend Saudi Arabia against attacks, and this includes the UK taking a more proactive role through the deployment of fighter aircraft. The UK government does not expect any knock-on effect on the Red Ensign Group of shipping States.
Meanwhile,talks remain ongoing between Russia and Ukraine through their US intermediaries and other States. Ukraine has reiterated that there should be a freeze in the current frontline prior to face-to-face talks. While the fighting continues, attacks on shipping continue, with one ship struck near Odessa and one near Sochi over the last week.