Delivering decarbonisation by ‘dead reckoning’ alone is a risky business, says Houlder
Ship managers are trusted advisors in guiding owners on vessel performance and commercial outcomes, writes Jonathan Strachan (pictured), Chief Technology Officer, Houlder. But in today’s increasingly complex maritime landscape – where emissions regulations compound existing commercial pressures – the consequences of missteps in planning, investment or management are more serious than ever.
Penalties for non-compliance are no longer marginal. The financial costs of paying to pollute are significant, but the downsides of slipping a grade in CII or paying additional fees for Fuel EU or IMO Mid Term measures outlined in MEPC 83, are catastrophic for a vessel’s marketability, adding up to significant missed opportunities.
To avoid oblivion, ship owners and ship managers are looking at all the ways to improve the energy performance of the fleets they own and operate. With a focus on navigating the energy transition at the lowest possible cost, driving efficiency, whether in newbuilds or through retrofits, is the firm resolve of the sector. To optimise this outcome, it is essential that decision makers and their advisors embrace data – combined with expertise – as the foundation of their decision-making process.
The industry has too much at stake to simply back its hunches on problems that are far too complex for humans alone to synthesise. Yet too often the selection of technology to apply to a vessel is based more on what might have been done before, and what owners and operators are familiar with. Adding clean technologies to a vessel without robustly identifying the impact and benefits for the vessel and its specific operating profile risks reducing the operational and commercial efficiency of the vessel. Different marine environments and operating profiles in regions around the world demand a tailored approach to fitting clean technology to a vessel.
As an example, Houlder was asked by a client to replicate an efficiency improvement that had proven successful on a vessel to its sister ship – the expectation being that a simple copy of the structural design was all that was needed. However, when the Houlder team looked at the vessel’s operational data via AIS, it was determined that the vessel operated at significantly slower speeds and a lighter draft compared with the previously retrofitted ship. Analysis of the impact of the efficiency improvements to the sister ship under these different loading conditions indicated that the savings would be reduced. While there was still benefit to the retrofit, it was important for the client to understand that the return on investment for the retrofit to the second vessel would be longer, considering its operating profile. Applying the right data and modelling combinations meant Houlder was able to provide guidance to the client to make an informed decision about their investment.
As more vessel owners seek to adopt clean technology to reduce energy consumption, Houlder is working with their ship managers to identify the data needed to support modelling, analysis and decision-making. If this data isn’t available, then it needs to be created using onboard sensors and monitoring. Coupled with ship performance data in the right modelling environment, this data can give a clear understanding of the impact of fitting a new technology to a vessel.
Working with a client to develop sea trials for a wind assisted propulsion system (WAPS), Houlder developed the sea trial programme and installed bespoke instrumentation to log the data from the WAPS device and the vessel. These sensors enabled real-time data analysis, supporting more informed decision making. Validating the WAPS performance for the ship owner allowed them to make longer term decisions about the adoption of the technology in their fleet.
The combination of naval architecture and data science expertise applied from the very start of a project to deploy clean technology leads to improved commercial outcomes. The challenge to optimise vessel performance through a combination of design, technology adoption, and operational behaviours is far too complex for an engineer to solve without the application of data science. Rapid growth in processing power in recent years has enabled predictive modelling to support evidence-based decision making in the shipping industry.
Powerful data science techniques have enabled Houlder to develop a modelling environment in which our naval architects and marine engineers can combine the sum of their knowledge and experience working with energy saving devices across different vessels and operational profiles to the benefit of every project they work on. This powerful tool allows data and modelling fidelity to be tailored to client needs, facilitating R&D budgeting and stage-gating decisions for the shipowner.
For advisors, including ship managers working across a range of projects, this allows for the careful management of project costs to contain the deployment costs of clean technologies and avoid failures that could slow progress towards decarbonisation.
The shipping industry currently lacks enough data on the performance of clean technologies to be able to make informed decisions about how they will perform on a given vessel. This needs addressing urgently. Houlder has continued to work with its clients to build an environment in which data collected to model vessel and technology behaviour is available to all our naval architects and engineers working on any project.
Houlder engineers have created modules that model all aspects affecting a vessel – from weather, sea-state and wave height to hull form, ballast and loading. They can then refine their modelling using a cocktail of modules to provide highly tailored data and insight to the shipowner and operator. When the decision is made to fit clean technology to a vessel, this analysis and insight can guide operational practices, thus ensuring that the vessel and technology and vessel perform in harmony for optimal results.
While gut instinct has historically guided many decisions in the maritime industry, continuing to rely on it in isolation is no longer sustainable. By adopting a more questioning approach and using data and technical expertise to select clean technologies shipowners and operators can achieve more efficient and effective performance from the technology that, in the final reckoning, will deliver better returns on their investment and decarbonisation at the lowest possible cost for the industry.