Big leaps, not small bounds, will decide shipping’s future, say LISW panellists

September’s London International Shipping Week (LISW25) finds an industry poised at one of shipping’s biggest inflection points, with the IMO’s next MEPC, and the outcome of discussions to introduce its Net Zero Framework, entailing a 5-10% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030, hanging in the balance. This time, the US Administration has threatened punitive economic measures against IMO and will “not hesitate to retaliate or explore remedies for our citizens”.

If IMO votes were decided on flagged tonnage, the US would scarcely get a mention. Bluster aside, this is not the wild departure from US doctrine that it might seem, with previous US administrations opposing consensus on ballast water, as well.

Achieving a 5% reduction by 2030 is a tall order, representing 0.6 exajoules of energy from non-fossil sources, highlighted Domagoj Baresic, senior research fellow at UCL, at the unveiling of the latest UCL report. He determined that training and policy were “partially on track”, but financing was deemed to be lagging behind, “not on track” -- and so was the number of alternative-fuel capable vessels. “[On] the orderbook, we do not see the number of ships to be able to say we’re meeting this.

“The real risk,” he added, addressing the Climate Action in Shipping – Progress Towards the 2030 Breakthrough event held at the LISW24 Global Hub, “is not, not quite meeting 5% in 2030, but in losing sight of the goal entirely.”

It would be a mistake, Nigel Topping, UK High-Level Climate Action Champion, told audiences, to look at the 5% target as the first in a series of linear benchmarks. To make that assumption, shipping would not reach net zero for over a century. Instead, the ‘S-curve’ was the focus – a trickle which would become a flood.

He called attention to a similar assumption made in the microchips industry – Moore’s Law – which exhibits a doubling of processing power every few years. “Moore’s Law is not really a law,” Topping, said. “It’s an assertion of market confidence.”

Instead, progress really arrives through inexorable tipping points – exactly the sort IMO is hoping to stimulate with its Net Zero Framework. “If a bunch of cargo owners in the future say they don’t want to buy, that’s a strong signal. It is human element, a desire to shape the future… which it taps into.”

Rather than the US, the focus is on China, which has hardly been the IMO’s most enthusiastic green shipping advocate; but has nonetheless singlehandedly steered developments in batteries, electric cars, renewable energy and shipbuilding in recent years.

“The shipping sector is not moving alone,” said Johannah Christensen, CEO of Global Maritime Forum. “There is a lot of action happening. It’s scattered – that all needs to be linked up. Steel, aluminium -- action here begets action elsewhere.”