New research from international shipbroker IFCHOR GALBRAITHS (IG) reveals contrasting fortunes for dry bulk shipping as Black Sea disruption, weaker Brazilian corn exports and changing trade routes reshape global freight demand
Panamax bulk carriers have emerged as the principal losers from changing global grain trade patterns, while smaller Supramax and Handysize vessels have benefited from the redistribution of wheat and corn shipments, according to IG’s research.
The analysis reveals that Panamax wheat and corn shipping demand fell by 27.65 billion tonne-miles in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the average for the corresponding quarters of 2023–2025. This represents a reduction equivalent to approximately 1.4% of the segment's total third-quarter dry bulk demand.
By contrast, Supramax vessels gained 10.15 billion tonne-miles, equivalent to approximately 0.6% of total segment demand, while Handysize vessels recorded an increase of 1.53 billion tonne-miles, or 0.2%.
The contrasting performance reflects a significant reshaping of global grain trade, as reduced Russian and Ukrainian exports, stronger shipments from alternative suppliers and a sharp decline in Brazilian corn exports alter both cargo availability and voyage distances.
IG's research shows that reduced Russian and Ukrainian wheat and corn shipments eliminated 30.63 billion tonne-miles of shipping demand during the quarter.
Alternative suppliers, notably Argentina, the United States and Canada, recorded substantial gains. Argentine exports generated an additional 28.72 billion tonne-miles, followed by the US (+17.03 billion) and Canada (+15.81 billion).
Argentina's increased exports were particularly supportive of geared bulk carriers, with Supramax and Handysize vessels benefiting from the changing distribution of cargoes. Increased US shipments, meanwhile, were concentrated in the Panamax segment.
However, these gains were heavily outweighed by a sharp contraction in Brazilian grain exports.
Brazilian wheat and corn shipments generated 53.19 billion fewer tonne-miles than the historical third-quarter average, reflecting a 33.9% reduction in export volumes and an 18.4% decline in average voyage distances.
The weakness of Brazil's corn export season and growing domestic demand from its expanding corn ethanol industry proved particularly damaging for Panamax demand, offsetting much of the benefit from stronger grain shipments elsewhere.
Serena Piazzo, Senior Analyst at IG said: "The changing geography of global grain trade is creating very different conditions for different parts of the dry bulk fleet.
"Although disruption to Black Sea exports has encouraged greater reliance on alternative suppliers, particularly in the Americas, the benefits have not been evenly distributed.
"Supramax and Handysize vessels have gained from changing cargo flows and longer voyages on certain routes. Panamax vessels, however, have been particularly exposed to weaker Brazilian corn exports and a reduction in average voyage distances.
"It demonstrates that the impact of trade disruption on freight markets depends not simply on how far commodities travel, but also on the availability of cargoes and the types of vessels employed."
Despite increased activity on some alternative trade routes, IG calculates that global wheat and corn shipping demand declined by 15.98 billion tonne-miles, or 3.4%, compared with the historical third-quarter average.
The reduction is equivalent to approximately 0.2% of total global dry bulk tonne-mile demand across all commodities.
The findings underline how changes in agricultural production, export competitiveness and trading patterns can produce markedly different outcomes across the dry bulk fleet.
The research forms part of IFCHOR GALBRAITHS' wider agricultural commodity analysis, including its Agri 360 service, which examines production forecasts, trade flows and their implications for shipping markets.